Christian Dem in NC's blog

New poll--Hagan 50, Dole 45; McCain 47, Obama 44; Perdue-McCrory tied at 46

Very good news from a new poll by Democracy Corps. On the Senate side, Kay Hagan leads for the first time in any credible statewide poll, while the presidential and gubernatorial races are still touching-me close.

On the Senate side, Hagan leads Liddy Dole by five points, 50-45. On the presidential side, McCain leads Obama, 47-44. On the governor's side, Bev Perdue and Pat McCrory are in a flat-footed tie, 46 percent apiece.

Insider Advantage--McCain up two, Dole-Hagan tied

Amid all the handwringing on dKos about Obama's shrinking poll numbers, Insider Advantage has some good news.

This poll was just taken yesterday. McCain's only up two, with 45 percent to Obama's 43 percent. And almost a week after the Saddleback Forum, no less. It hasn't been factored into the Pollster.com composite yet, but I'm betting this turns North Carolina yellow again (it's currently pink). The Senate race is a flat-footed tie, with Dole and Hagan getting 40 percent apiece.

The Warren forum--from a Christian Dem's perspective

(cross-posted at dKos)

Some thoughts from the perspective of a young evangelical Christian who long ago told the Republicans to go fly a kite ...

Overall, I have to call this a draw. Obama couldn't have handled himself better, and judging by the amount of applause probably got a few people off the fence. However, McCain may well have won some people over as well.

More thoughts after the jump ...

New poll by Civitas: more bad news for McCain

(cross-posted at dKos)

Yet another partisan Repub poll in North Carolina shows bad news for McCain. According to the Pope Institute, a conservative think tank, he's only up three points here, 43-40. No internals or MoE out yet, but with it this close, it has to be a statistical dead heat or close to it.

Obama only down 2 in Georgia--but is this legit?

Good news for us--if a poll out of Georgia is legitimate, McCain may have to take some money he wanted to spend in Charlotte, the Triangle or the Triad and spend it in Atlanta.

InsiderAdvantage has released a new poll showing McCain with 46 percent of the vote in Georgia to Obama's 44 percent--well within the 4.3 percent margin of error. The only thing that makes me question its legitimacy is the lack of internals.

Ideas for redistricting North Carolina

(cross-posted at dKos)

Recently, I started wondering how to handle redrawing North Carolina's congressional districts. After all, this state is turning bluer by the minute, and we've got one (and perhaps two) relatively new Dem congressmen to protect. Something else to consider--two of our districts look VERY vulnerable to Repub takeover once the current incuments retire. So here's my idea for redistricting North Carolina in a few years ... feel free to quibble.

Surprise! DCCC running radio ads against Patrick McHenry

I was on my way home from work this morning when I heard a pleasant surprise--the DCCC was airing an ad attacking Patrick McHenry for his cozy relationship with Shrub and Big Oil. What's more, the DCCC is highlighting its ad script teeing up McHenry as part of its campaign to tee up 13 House Repubs for voting with Big Oil. (note, the audio is from the ad for Robin Hayes)

Surprising, to say the least.

Polling in NC: presidential race is a dead heat, but Senate race is troubling

(cross-posted at dKos)

Public Policy Polling confirms what we already knew--North Carolina is in play presidentially. However, news from the Senate race here isn't quite as encouraging.

On the presidential side, McCain only leads Obama 45-41--just one point over the margin of error. Barr gets 5 percent. Note, this is a Democratic polling firm--but as with the last poll from NC, from a Republican polling firm, there's virtually no good news for McCain.

On the Senate side, however, Liddy Dole appears to be pulling away from Kay Hagan. She now leads 51 percent to 38 percent ... and the trends suggest Hagan's got some work to do.

Republican polling firm--Obama in a statistical dead heat!

Kos just reported some absolutely delightful news--Tel Opinion Research, a Republican polling firm, has released a new poll showing Obama only down four points, right at the margin of error. It's 45 percent for McCain to 41 percent for Obama. It's official, folks--our state is in play.

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