Amid all the handwringing on dKos about Obama's shrinking poll numbers, Insider Advantage has some good news.
This poll was just taken yesterday. McCain's only up two, with 45 percent to Obama's 43 percent. And almost a week after the Saddleback Forum, no less. It hasn't been factored into the Pollster.com composite yet, but I'm betting this turns North Carolina yellow again (it's currently pink). The Senate race is a flat-footed tie, with Dole and Hagan getting 40 percent apiece.
As is the case with every presidential poll out of North Carolina that I've seen, the only good news for McCain is that he's ahead. Two trends in this look particularly ominous for McCain--independents and young people are both breaking for Obama. Obama leads 40-28 among independents, and 57-27 among young people. The latter lead is only going to grow once Carolina, Duke and State get started. I suspect the voter registration effort is going to make the one I helped out with in '96 look minor league. And this is the first poll I've seen out of a Bible Belt state since the Saddleback Forum. If McCain got a bounce here because of that, I don't see it.
The Senate race shows similar trends--independents (38-27) and young people (40-23) are breaking toward Hagan.
Only thing that's missing in both is a regional breakdown--though if past polling is any indication, McCain and Dole's leads are due almost entirely to Charlotte. Drop some ad-bombs down here, Barack and Kay!