Kissell $100,000 COH - UPDATE

The Kissell campaign is months ahead of schedule compared to last cycle. Every penny, every headline, every blog post, every comment, every encouraging word to Larry and his campaign has contributed to the momentum Larry Kissell is carrying into the 2008 cycle. Everyone here at BlueNC should feel good about our part in this, because we have all contributed in some way.

There will be more events coming up, so stay tuned to BlueNC. In the meantime, let's keep that momentum going and shoot for $1,000,000 by 2008.

Woo Hoo! Go Larry!

UPDATE: The Kissell campaign just released their fundraising results showing that they raised almost $140,000 in the first full fundraising period of the cycle. Oh My!

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Comments

Amen

n/t

Encouraging news

Thanks for keeping the drum beating!

a million indeed.

John Edwards is great!
- Sam Spencer, BlueNC, 7/3/07

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Jumpin Jiminy!!

Remember last August...just months before the election and Larry hadn't even raised $100k - much less had that much cash on hand?

What a difference a year makes!

Larry Kissell is MY Congressman

Press release just came in my email

Those are great results.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Questions

How much is from a Chris Van Hollen salvo?
What is DCCC vs. Personal Donors ratio?
What percent of donors donated under $100?
How much debt do they still have?
What is their burn rate?

UHC in 'o8!!

Won't know until the reports are available at FEC

However, I imagine many donated under $100. Many (not a majority, but many) have chosen monthly donations through ActBlue, which is really nice for the campaign. I'm sure Larry will see more PAC donations than last cycle and there might be some money promised him by folks in Congress that goes through D-trip instead of being sent straight to Larry - I honestly don't know how those things work.

Burn rate? Uh...don't know that they're burning much at all yet. This is a very frugal campaign. They have to be.

Debt is held in last cycle's account and I believe there are plans to retire it. However, that's been the word for a while, so we'll have to see what actually happens.

I actually don't think much can be attributed to a Chris Van Hollen salvo, but you can easily find the number of his congressional office, or just call the DCCC if you can't wait for the FEC filings.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Hate to burst your bubble, but . . .

I hate to burst everybody's bubble here but the unfortunate fact of the matter is that for the Kissell campaign $100,000 COH right now is NOT that good given the circumstances.

The DCCC has given the Kissell campaign all the support they can; they have sent down Artur Davis, and Rahm Emmanuel to do fundraisers, and have had Chairman Chris Van Hollen do a fundraising call for them, as well as put him on all their top contenders lists. The Kissell campaign also sent out a flood of fundraising e-mails in the week leading up to June 30th, as well as had several fundraising events. They should have a LOT more than $100,000 cash on hand right now.

Let me give you a quick comparison to make my point. Take a look at the numbers for the Dem Lt. Governors candidates that was posted here on BlueNC recently. http://bluenc.com/the-lt.-governors-race.

Dellinger $520,000
Dalton $570,000
Besse $ 101,600
Smathers $????

Besse is a good guy, but the general consensus among Dem's from around the state is that he has no chance of winning. Never the less, this Lt. Governor candidate who is seen as having no chance of winning has roughly the same cash on hand as the DCCC's top ranked challenger !!!!

I don't mean this post as a slam on the Kissell campaign, but the truth of the matter is that having only $100,000 cash on hand at this point will NOT be enough to scare anyone out of running against Kissell.

Whether anyone likes it or not, the chance that Larry Kissell will have a viable primary challenge went up significantly with the release of these numbers.

My only question would be...

are we comparing Q2 numbers versus total numbers since the beginning. I posted the other diary, but I can't remember whether that was total COH or not.
There are implications depending on the answer to these questions.

John Edwards is great!
- Sam Spencer, BlueNC, 7/3/07

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Those were COH numbers for Lt. Gov., not all time

1 Thessalonians 5:21: But examine everything carefully; hold fast to that which is good.

I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks

That's pretty funny

Since Kissell had far less at this point last cycle...wait he didn't have squat this point last cycle and he just about toppled Flipper.

Dellinger and Dalton both have deep connections to deep pockets in this state and have both been in or around politics for many, many years. Larry is a beginner - in case that fact escaped you. Hell even Besse has been in politics longer than Larry has. Nice try on the apple to orange comparison, but it just doesn't work.

I realize that you joined here just to leave this comment having been a member maybe a minute or so before you left this comment and I'm sure you're going to claim that you aren't with the Glazier / Autry campaigns...and maybe you aren't, but you sure do sound like it.

What you don't sound like is someone who has a clue about the 8th District. It isn't progressive. It isn't even close. Oh, there might be three or four liberal precincts in Mecklenburg of the 29 within the district, but even most of the Dems in Meck's portion of the 8th are relatively moderate. In other words, they resemble a populist like Larry Kissell more than they do left wing liberals like Rick Glazier or John Autry. I know Glazier had trouble winning re-election last cycle, so maybe he's scared and thinks he should try something new. His real problem is that he has a track record that's going to follow him around.

For example: Glazier pushed legislation that would allow some illegal immigrants and their children to pay in-state tuition rates at NC's public universities. No matter what folks at BlueNC think of that idea, in a district that for the most part isn't too fond of illegal immigrants, that just doesn't play. In the 8th District that's the sort of legislation that'll go over like a gay porn film festival shown during a kiddie matinee.

Let's take a look, at Autry's and Glazier's fundraising. The problem is, Autry must not have raised the $3000 or so last cycle it would have taken for him to file with the FEC because there are no reports for Autry. We'll have to wait and see if he files this quarter.

Glazier - he's got a background in Cumberland, so his state filings should be illuminating. Hmmmm.
In the first six months of 2005 he had raised $2,764 and had that same amount COH. By the end of 2005 Glazier had raised a total of $8, 378 and had $2080 COH. To be fair, I believe there is a portion of that time that his hands were tied on fundraising. However, that is certainly not the type of cash you'd need to raise to run a viable primary campaign. First quarter of 2006 - that's the last point before the primary, Glazier had raised a total of about $45,000. 'Nuff said.

A primary challenge isn't a terrible thing. It actually can be an inexpensive way for Larry to raise his name recognition. Newest piece out just an hour ago New York Times/Congressional Quarterly - doesn't even mention Glazier, but they sure wanted to get Kissell's name out there.

Kissell is getting a much earlier start than in the 2006 campaign cycle; for that contest, Kissell filed candidacy paperwork in November 2005 — just one year before the election. Kissell filed a new statement of candidacy in March 2007, more than a year and a half before the 2008 election.

Nope, Glazier isn't mentioned, but they did give Autry a nod.

Democrat John Autry, whom Kissell decisively defeated in the 2006 primary, also has filed candidacy paperwork for next year’s race.



Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Betsy, I see where you're coming from

But I don't think anyone here (aside from cartoon characters) is supporting a campaign that doesn't (and probably won't) exist. And all the Autry supporters are on dKos. That guy didn't bring up anything about political slants, and you go and write something that will make the netroots more inclined to support Glazier. Thank God you didn't make that comment on Kos.

1 Thessalonians 5:21: But examine everything carefully; hold fast to that which is good.

I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks

Most of us already know it won't exist

But instead of speaking in broad sweeping terms like so many of you, I choose to give specifics, Sam. That's called, backing your opinion up with fact, something you should practice a little more often.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

C'mon

I'm not the one who made the apples and oranges comparison of Glazier's State House fundraising and his potential for Congressional fundraising, and I'm not painting in strokes that are broader than anyone else's. And the guy says absolutely nothing about political slant, and you go and say things like "Larry only has 4 liberal precincts in Mecklenburg" ... when many more than that are fairly reliable yellow dog precincts if you can turn them out. Seriously, what are you talking about, what opinion have I not backed up with fact?

And what is

like so many of you

supposed to mean?

1 Thessalonians 5:21: But examine everything carefully; hold fast to that which is good.

I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks

Cartoon characters, apparently

...because you said that only a cartoon character supports Glazier's rumored bid for congress.

There might be some yaller dawgs in the bunch, but in a primary they aren't leaning hard left. You would be hard pressed to find far-left liberals in large numbers. Of course, there might be more than four precincts. There might be five or six. You know many D's and U's in this district lean to the center/right. It's a reality and coming from the far left might get some cheers in a few areas of Meck, but it just doesn't play in many of the other counties - even the Dem counties.

Plus - I didn't make an apples to oranges comparison - I used the only data available to me to show his ability to raise money. Glazier had a tough challenge in '06 and I believe in '04 as well. You would think that would motivate those who wanted to see him elected - and he does have friends in high places - to donate to the campaign. What he ultimately raised is not shabby for a state house race, but $78,000+/- came from Dem party committees and he won't get that in a primary bid - nobody will.

I dont' care whether the other poster said anything about political slant. He made a broad general statement about how the pros would say $100,000 isn't enough to ward off a primary challenge, he backed it up with ZERO facts and I chose to use facts to show why he - and any pros who agreed with him - was/were wrong. Those broad general statements will get you in trouble every time.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

As in, the cartoon character in my pic

Maybe the guy should have said that that amount alone wouldn't scare away potential challengers?

And it is apples and oranges, since it's generally easier to raise more money for a higher profile race ... and since Glazier didn't have a primary last time.

But I don't think any of that matters, since the main point the guy was making was that $100K CoH isn't that impressive when you're the presumptive nominee, netroots darling, and knighted by the DCCC. The fact that it's a poor district isn't really a factor, given how much money came from out of district last time. And though the campaign has a head start, will the number be that impressive when we subtract the DCCC money and debt? That's an answer that we're going to have to wait on for now, but we do know that Hayes is expecting a tough race this time, and so is the NRCC.

1 Thessalonians 5:21: But examine everything carefully; hold fast to that which is good.

I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks

I never knew

Yellow Dog = Liberal

In fact, I'm pretty confident that my understanding of Yellow Dog ( ie: a Dem who will vote for any Dem, even a Yellow Dog) is accurate.

Am I right? Anyone?

Larry Kissell is MY Congressman

You are correct

I love my yellow dog sticker on my bulletin board. Once I move to Republican Union County I'm thinking it needs to go on my car. :)

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

You're right, I misspoke.

Though a lot of liberal-but-not-too-liberal voters end up being yellow dogs in great numbers ;)

1 Thessalonians 5:21: But examine everything carefully; hold fast to that which is good.

I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks

See above...

...for the definition of "astroturph."

'Night.

That person e-mailed me

They're not astroturfing.

1 Thessalonians 5:21: But examine everything carefully; hold fast to that which is good.

I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks

Listen Up

Some times it's NOT 'All About the Money'.

And until people get that idea Out of Their Heads -

it will remain 'all about the money'

Now - is that what you want? All about the money?

Yes, money is important. But money is a tool like a safety pin or a bulldozer.

I wish people would just .... grrr.... quit making it all about the money. Our government is more important than to let it be led by Mammon.

peace out -

Not when we're picking the qualities we like, Unique

but when it comes to name recognition and getting the word out about those qualities, it is all about the money. Trust me. You can't run a campaign without it.

We talk a lot about money and campaign finance here. Those posts will be all about the money and who gave it.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

I Know That -

You can't run a campaign without it.

But some people act like it's the only thing...

and it's not the only thing. It ain't nuthin' but a thang...
It's the people that give the Party movement. Money is just the grease.

Ya ken?

What?????

If people will read my original comment, which drew such fire, I wasn't speaking in support of any other candidate than Kissell, I was merely stating that the conventinal wisdom from Dem strategists around the country is that $100,000 COH will not be enough to scare away a potential primary threat. Granted the comparision to the Lt. Governors race is not a perfect comparision, but the fact is that perfect comparisons don't exist. Every race, and every district is diffrent. If. I merely threw those numbers out to give people some frame of reference.

It is possible that given Kissell's recent entry into politics it is harder for him to raise money then candidates that have more political and big money ties. It is also true that money is not everything in campaigns. It also might be true that other potential candidates are less likely to get elected in the 8th district because they are too lberal on issues like illegal immigration. However I did not make any of these assertions. I merely stated that $100,000 COH will not be enough to dissuade a potentially strong primary challenge. I stand by that asseration. You may argue that it should be enough, but whether it "should" be enough or not is irrelavent.

For the record I am NOT affiliated with either the Autry or Glazier campaigns as has been suggessted.

In the interest in fairness anyone who sees fit to accuse me of that should also point out anyone who attacked me who IS affiliatted with the Kissell campaign. My comment was NOT astroturph, however I have to ask te question "why is astroturph bad if it came from the Glazier campaign, or the Autry campaign, but NOT bad if it came from the Kissell campaign?"

There is a much larger issue here though that should be addressed. perhaps in another thread. That is the active efforts to shout down any sort of a reasoned disscussion.

Yes that was the first comment I made after newly registering. I am a long time reader of BlueNC and a first time poster who decided to try and get involved in the debate. One of the reasons I have been reluctant to become involved in the discussions is that I have noticed a tendency for intelligent reasoned discussions to quickly degenerate into unfocused ramblings and personal attacks.

Is this the way you welcome new posters, and new participants in the discussion? You shout them down, and try to gang up on them and intimidate them into NOT coming back? This is nothing short of the same idiotic behaviour of Ann Coulter and Bil O'Reilly. They seek to shout down and attack anyone who fails to agree with them 100%, and recites anything other than there approved talking points. What happens here is the exact same.

See....

I agree with the first part of this...

Is this the way you welcome new posters, and new participants in the discussion? You shout them down, and try to gang up on them and intimidate them into NOT coming back?

But, you should have left out this.

This is nothing short of the same idiotic behaviour of Ann Coulter and Bil O'Reilly. They seek to shout down and attack anyone who fails to agree with them 100%, and recites anything other than there approved talking points. What happens here is the exact same.

The fact is that $100,000 and $140,000 raised aren't the greatest numbers. But, we aren't talking about the 4th district or the 13th district with lots of cash in them. We're talking about the 8th, which has been economically hammered. There isn't a big donor base to start with in the 8th and Larry is still a worker-bee. The DCCC means that Larry gets to have the nice dinners in Raleigh with Jim Hunt, Mike Easley, and everyone else there shaking hands - ching-ching $150,000.
He gets to have the nice emails sent out to the DCCC "list" - ching-ching $150,000.
There will be enough money to win this race.

As to your welcome here at BlueNC, we have a history of first-time posters that pop-in to attack one person, then disappear again into the void. I would suggest if you are a long-time reader that you know this and should try to hang around and talk about something else now and again.

John Edwards is great!
- Sam Spencer, BlueNC, 7/3/07

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

And have we forgotten...

we're talking about $$$ raised a full year before the Primary? There are 3+ quarters left to raise funds before the first lever is ever pulled for the 08 race.

FEC reports for this quarter will be out soon, so we can compare Kissell's current COH to his so-far named opponent and make a more informed analysis of this benchmark. With that said, I'm gonna go out on a limb here and predict that John Autry has substantially less in the bank than Larry. Just a wild guess.

Larry Kissell is MY Congressman

Larry debunked that conventional wisdom last cycle

If you had been paying attention to last cycle as a long-time reader, then you would know that. Also, my post indicated that he was well ahead of where he was last cycle. He had far less entering the primary season and was going up against the D-trip favorite until Dunn dropped out and still won handily. (the primary, that is)

Your biggest problem is that you ignored all of that when you jumped in and said that $100,000 isn't enough. Every district is different. $100,000 might not be enough in some districts, but in this district it more than likely is more than enough - especially since nobody else is raising money at this point to challenge Larry.

Now, I'm the only one who really pushed back at you and I will ask you to read my comment again. The worst I said about you is that you sounded like someone who might be affiliated with the Glazier campaign. If that's an attack or insult, then maybe Rick isn't as nice a guy as folks say he is. ;) Oh, I also said you didn't know much about the 8th district and quite frankly, you don't sound like you do. There are a lot of things I don't know much about and sadly I sometimes try to talk about them. If I get corrected I don't accuse people of attacking me. What's worse is when people don't correct you, because you don't get the opportunity to learn. That happens sometimes too.

You compare us to Coulter, but isn't it Coulter who plays the victim when she gets some pushback? That's what it seems that you are doing. You say you're being attacked when actually what is happening is that you are finding people don't agree with you.

I am not with the Kissell campaign, though I am a huge fan and supporter, but anyone who has been a long-time reader would know that already.

Welcome to BlueNC.

/unfocused rambling



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

When You Hear Me Holler -

It's mostly 'in the wind'

(cuz nobody listens anyway) ;)

Every race, and every district is different.

Yepper. You are correct!

And welcome since you said yer a new guy. It's more like family squabbles than flame wars - so don't let us scare ya off, okay?

Clarify

I did not mean to imply that $100,000 was not enough money to win in the 8th District. Kissell's campaign showed that in 2006 that it is possible to do very well with a limited budget. I merely said that $100,000 COH would not be enough to scare away potential primary challengers. Maybe it "should" be enough to scare away challengers, but the fact is that I don' think it WILL be enough to scare away challengers.

This does not mean that Kissell will not be able to beat any potential primary challenger he faces.

Work will scare away challenger

I have never witnessed a candidate that has spent as much time going around the district as Larry Kissell. He has been in every corner of the entire district. I doubt any challenger can match Larry Kissell on his door to door, house to house, style. Larry Kissell has stood up for all the folks who have lost their jobs due to Hayes caft vote. A lot of us a very protection of a man who has spent so much of his time for the people of the 8th district. I saw Kissell in front of the closing textle plant in Scotland County late at night to raise awareness of the problem. I did not see any elected official, local or state there to tell these workers someone cares. No person who has the true interest in the people of the 8th district should primary Kissell. I make no bones about it. I 100% support Larry Kissell and could not be any prouder of a candidate. Money matters but Kissell proved that shoe leather and sweat can beat one of the richest men in Congress.