New Elon Poll is Out - Larry Kissell's lead is Confirmed! UPDATED

Don't pop open the champagne yet, but you might want to put some on ice. Use this poll as motivation to get out there and convince those undecideds that they need to vote for an honest man, an humble man. They need and want to vote for Larry Kissell.

The Elon University Poll, as reported by Dr. Hunter Bacot - yes, the same man who previously said this district wasn't in play and wasn't even on their radar (heh, heh, gloat, gloat) basically confirms the poll numbers release a couple of days ago by RT Strategies.

Please follow below the fold...

Elon has not posted the results (so no link), but they've been reported by NPR and the Charlotte Observer's Jim Morrill (enough with the goat, already, Jim). I'll quote from Morrill's article.

Their appearance came the same day a new poll by Elon University showed the war in Iraq and the economy the top concerns of voters in the district, which spans Charlotte to Fayetteville. It also found what could be good news for each candidate.

The survey of 410 residents (not necessarily voters) found 61 percent have confidence in Hayes, and 48 percent approve of the job he has done in Congress.

But the poll found 68 percent said it is "time to give new people a chance to serve" in Congress. And 41 percent said they would support the Democratic candidate, compared with 33 percent who said they would back the Republican.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

In other words,41% Larry Kissell and 33% Robin Hayes with a large undecided portion of the population. Bacot says that makes the race a statistical dead heat. While normally I would say he's right, since undecideds tend to swing toward the incumbent, I think the current climate and mood of the electorate will have some sway over the undecided voters also.

The weaknesses of the poll as a predictor are numerous. The most important to point out are the sample size of 410 (small) and the fact that it is a sample of residents who aren't necessarily registered voters. To Bacot/Elon's credit, they clearly state this in their work.

Good news? You damn well betcha it is. Let's get out there and get those undecided voters folks. Boots on the ground and ears to the phones.

Update: My experience in the campaigns I've run or been a part of supports the "incumbent rule" - that undecideds tend to break for the incumbent. However, dcobranchi disagrees, so I did a quick bit of research and find that there is support for his/her? position out there on the web. This is old, but a good read. I really want to be wrong on this and I think I am. That leads me to this question. How could Dr. Hunter Bacot, a respected pollster, be so wrong about the breaking of the undecided voters?

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Comments

SD beats GF by a click

Elon Poll is also described in today's News & Observer

Congratulations, beat me to it. Good news but as I said in my (now edited) post, no time for celebration yet. As you say, boots on the ground and ears to the phone.

Speaking of phones and polls I've had a robo-call from Robinson posing as a poll. He must be desperate if he's trolling Dems.

Undecideds...

tend to break for the challenger, not the incumbent. The explanation is generally along the lines that the incumbent is well known but has not been able to close the sale.

link

press release

Please note this was done at the same time as the constiuent dynamics poll.

HelpLarry.com

"Keep the Faith"

It looks like there is another poll out there too

I'm hearing word of phone calls from a couple of nights ago. Mom got one last night, but was doing trick or treat with the grandkids and refused the poll before I could scream at her that it might have been an 8th District congressional poll and to do the damned thing. Oh well....I'll learn her up good before 2008. :-)

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

My momma, too

She lives in Kannapolis and was polled last night.

Bless her heart...she couldn't remember how the polling company identified themselves because she was concentrating so hard on the questions, making sure she wasn't getting push-polled!

The poll seems legit: do you approve of GWB's job performance, do you approve of Robin Hayes' job performance, if the election were held today who would you vote for - those kinds of questions.

Two guesses how my momma answered....hehehe!

Robin Hayes Hates Puppies

Ask your mom if she got a robo call

from John McCain. I did and it was pathetic. It sounded almost computer generated and it was very choppy with the intonation in the wrong places for it to be real. It was spliced together.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

No McCain, but

she did get a call from some group out of Florida asking her what she thought of schools teaching kids how to be homosexual.

She laughed and told them she wished some school had taught the caller some common sense!

Robin Hayes Hates Puppies

then thats it

then that will be the final poll before election day.
i wonder who is doing it.

HelpLarry.com

"Keep the Faith"

More on the Incumbent Rule...

here.

And, I'm a "him." :-)

Daryl Cobranchi

Hehe Sorry. You might have posted it before and I didn't see

In that case (anti-incumbent rule ) I'll take this poll and give it a hug. :)

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Pollster/Source N

Pollster/Source 	N Pop	MoE	Dates		Larry Kissell (D)	Robin Hayes (R)*
Elon			410	4.93	10/22-10/26		41(genericD)	33(genericR)
RT Strategies/
Constituent Dynamics	999 LV	3.09	10/24-26/06		48		44
Bullshit Poll (R)	400 LV	4.9	10/16-17/06		33		49
RT Strategies/
Constituent Dynamics	1029 LV	3.08	10/8-10/06		51		44
OnPoint Polling and
 Research (D)		594 LV	4	10/4/06			46		47

The momentum is clearly on Mr. Kissell's side in this race.

CountryCrats - my thoughts, my blog.

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me