New poll by Civitas: more bad news for McCain

(cross-posted at dKos)

Yet another partisan Repub poll in North Carolina shows bad news for McCain. According to the Pope Institute, a conservative think tank, he's only up three points here, 43-40. No internals or MoE out yet, but with it this close, it has to be a statistical dead heat or close to it.

More ominous for McCain is the downward trend in his lead here from previous polls by this outfit:

February – McCain 46, Obama 36
April – McCain 48, Obama 39
May – McCain 44, Obama 39
June – McCain 45, Obama 41, Barr 2

And Obama hasn't even started really bombarding the state with ads yet.

This can only mean one thing--even if we can't turn North Carolina blue, we'll bleed McCain white trying. After all, every penny he has to spend on Charlotte or Triangle television is one less penny he can spend in Hampton Roads, Miami, Orlando or Detroit. And that suits this North Carolinian just fine.

Comments

you don't need a weatherman

I wouldn't put too much stock in the John Locke Fdn/Civitas poll: it also reported that over half of North Carolinians would want to privatize our schools and that two-thirds don't want to do anything about global warming.

At the polling luncheon Max Borders declared that oil spills are a thing of the past, and the very next day a major oil spill befouled Mississippi.

You don't need a weatherman to tell you where the wind blows. Or a marionette as the case may be.

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McCain - The Third Bush Term

This makes me wonder...

At the polling luncheon Max Borders declared that oil spills are a thing of the past, and the very next day a major oil spill befouled Mississippi.

Could that have been a coordinated effort with the aborted McCain/Jindal event? The mind boggles. It probably was.

At any rate, you're right, Jerimee. I don't need a weatherman to know it's raining outside. When I'm seeing Obama stickers all over Moore County, and hearing from people otherwise uninclined to touch the "D" on their voting machine that they have already decided to vote for Obama, I can see for myself what's going on.

PPP

I was polled yesterday by PPP (I believe) so we should see their numbers soon.

PPP

is all over NC. I haven't been polled, but I know lots of people who have.

Insiders I talk to tell me to be cautiously optimistic.

PPP Results: McCain 47-Obama 44

Also, there is Dole 49 - Hagan 40

Swing State Project

Public Policy Polling (7/23-27, likely voters, 6/26-29 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 40 (37)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 49 (51)
(MoE: ±3.4%)
This is the second poll in a row to show Dole with a nine-point lead, and with neither candidate on the airwaves right now, I think we can assume that this race is moving into a holding pattern around this mark for now. The good news is that Hagan's well within striking distance, and I expect this race to tighten up considerably in the fall.

Bonus finding: McCain only leads Obama in the state by 47-44.

Public Policy Polling

The poll sample includes 77% white, 20% black respondents. That seems to be an undersampling of the black vote by 2% or so, especially with Obama on the top of the ticket.

Only problem I've had with PPP in a while

Is that they polled the 8th District over the 4th of July holiday weekend and I don't recall them/Tom acknowledging this openly or stating that this could have had an impact on the numbers one way or another. Maybe its in the fine print somewhere, but I don't recall reading it in Tom's blog post. I just think that was a bit unprofessional. I can't imagine polling over a holiday weekend being accurate. I really like PPP and usually enjoy what Tom has to say whether I agree 100% with him or not.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Big effect

For instance, Obama has consistently polled a few points lower on Saturdays than every other day of the week. So when the rolling 3 day averages come around to include saturday he takes a dip every time.

If something like that is going on for a Saturday, its even easier to imagine it would happen for July 4th.

"Keep the Faith"

"Keep the Faith"

Betsy, About 80-90% of the

Betsy,

About 80-90% of the interviews for that poll were conducted during the week. Those interviewed over the weekend were just the people who we didn't get at home Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night, or Thursday afternoon. We gave them another shot Saturday afternoon or Sunday night.

We call everyone the first day we do a poll and then usually do callbacks to those we don't reach over the course of the next three or four days so when you see a poll showing a four or five day field time you can usually be certain most of it was done the first day. We just do what we can to accommodate people with different schedules, etc.

Tom, that sounds great!

So 80-90% answered the phone? I don't get that response when I'm calling people I know! Maybe that should tell me something. Too many people have caller ID. :D

Seriously, I just want to understand what you're saying...not trying to be a smart ass. If 80-90% were called during the week (I believe the poll ran from the 2nd to the 5th) then you're saying that 80-90% of those called either responded to the poll, said they would not respond or were wrong numbers/disconnects and ________? I'm just wondering what criteria you use to determine whether you'll even bother to call them back on the weekend. I'm not trying to get your secret recipe or anything. Usually, I'm one of your biggest supporters, but I know what my household is like when I'm trying to get ready to go on a trip - even a weekend trip. I still have a hard time believing that conducting a poll over a holiday weekend didn't skew the numbers in some way.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Obama Ad Buy

I would have to disagree that the Campaign for Change has INDEED begun inundating the state with ads. I know I've seen many, many Obama commercials on WTVD Channel 11, and I caught even more on another channel yesterday, can't remember which one.

I'd be curious how the NC ad buy compares to other states (I know Under the Dome recently reported on the amount both the Obama and McCain campaigns were spending in NC). But I think his ads are certainly helping him in the polls.

Phillip Hunter Gilfus,
DNC Member-Elect (NC),
Democratic National Committee