Polling in NC: presidential race is a dead heat, but Senate race is troubling

(cross-posted at dKos)

Public Policy Polling confirms what we already knew--North Carolina is in play presidentially. However, news from the Senate race here isn't quite as encouraging.

On the presidential side, McCain only leads Obama 45-41--just one point over the margin of error. Barr gets 5 percent. Note, this is a Democratic polling firm--but as with the last poll from NC, from a Republican polling firm, there's virtually no good news for McCain.

On the Senate side, however, Liddy Dole appears to be pulling away from Kay Hagan. She now leads 51 percent to 38 percent ... and the trends suggest Hagan's got some work to do.

On the presidential side, McCain still has a small lead due almost entirely to leads in the Triad (area code 336, 51-34) and Charlotte (area code 704, 47-35). However, nearly everything else points in Obama's favor. Obama leads among independents (43-31) and among people who weren't born in North Carolina (46-40). He also has strong leads among people who are concerned about Iraq (48-42), the economy (49-38) education (66-28) and health care (52-22). About the only good news for McCain is that Obama still hasn't brought the Dems home down here--Obama only has the support of 67 percent of Democrats, while McCain has the support of 83 percent of Republicans.

Dole's ad blitz must be making a difference, as she's leading in every region of the state and has brought home more Republicans than McCain. She's even in a flat-footed tie on the economy (45-45), Iraq (45-45) and education (36-35). In a strange note, Hagan only has the support of 52 percent of blacks--a demographic where she should be beating Dole like a rented mule.



God I don't want Dole to win!!

understanding margin of error

Small point:
The margin of error in this poll is +/-3%. That means that it is 95% likely that support for McCain is somewhere between 42-48% and support for Obama is somewhere between 38-44%. Because these 2 ranges overlap between 42-44%, we say that the race is statistically tied, or a dead heat. When there is no overlap, then it will be considered a "statistically significant" lead for one candidate or the other.

small point...but important to know

thanks for explaining and simplifying.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.

Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Kay Hagan

My spouse attended a meeting that Kay Hagan had this week at an American Legion post in Cary. Almost no matter what Kay was asked, the answer she gave was, basically, "We must do more for veterans." I hope she learns to answer questions. My spouse and I will vote for her, but a little less hiding from difficult issues would be welcome.

Keep this in mind:

Liddy Dole is a polished speaker who has impressed the hell out of veterans for years, yet she has voted against their interests numerous times. Proving that a) she knows what their issues are, and b) she doesn't care.

Don't confuse posture with purpose, because it will leave you with unresolved problems.

Kay Hagan is holding these town halls for veterans

so she can find out what the questions are. Town halls are for listening. Kay may not have all the answers and she shouldn't until she's talked with enough veterans to find out about all the real life, day-to-day problems they are facing. I'm sure it was frustrating to not hear specifics, but the fact is she is doing more than paying lip service to listening to veterans. I think I would be more scared if Kay was offering answers based on polls or simply things that have already been in the news. The town hall in cary was either her first or second veteran's town hall. Give her a chance to hold a few more and then see if she's maybe hearing some solutions along with the questions that veteran's have. Who better to offer the solutions, right?

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.

Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

I have found her speaking style less than appealling

But she has an excellent record of listening to and responding to consituent's issues as a NC Senator. Dole, while she is, as Betsy points out, a polished speaker, has done less than nothing to help constituents in NC. In my opinion, she has spent her entire term working against us.

We must elect Kay Hagan to the US Senate.

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi
Pointing at Naked Emperors

Why I supported Jim Neal

That is a main reason I supported Jim Neal in the primary. Jim Neal was an inspiring speaker and actually answered questions. He also wasn't afraid to admit when he was wrong.

Kay Hagan seems like a typical politician with "canned answers." She needs to be more candid and informal. I respect people much more when they speak a little off-the-cuff.

Walking with her tomorrow

Me and my kids will be walking with her in our local 4th of July parade. I look forward to getting to know her a little better and hear what she has to say.

Wake Forest won't play us anymore
Michigan last year
LSU - you are next

Could Obama be ahead?

A commenter on dKos suggested that PPP undersampled blacks by four percent ... and with that factored in, it's 45-42 Obama.

I initially found that hard to believe. But then again, SUSA has him up one in freaking Indiana, and Pollster.com's composite has him up one in Virginia.

Kay Hagan

If Kay Hagan is supposed to be the new Jim Webb, I'm not troubled. The polls for both races are really similar so it's not impossible for Kay to pull out a win. I think that as long as Democrats and Independents pull for her and vote in large numbers (helped by Obama, of course) she'll win. I don't think it's a pipe dream to think Dole will lose. Once North Carolina see the two of them on a widely televised, professional debate they'll go Kay's way. It's like Clinton supporters supporting McCain...why would you vote for someone who doesn't represent your best interests.