Kos just reported some absolutely delightful news--Tel Opinion Research, a Republican polling firm, has released a new poll showing Obama only down four points. It's 45 percent for McCain to 41 percent for Obama. It's official, folks--our state is in play.
There's virtually no good news for McCain in this poll. He's below 50 percent among men and down three among women. I didn't expect it to be even this close--until I saw that Obama's beating McCain like a rented mule among indies, 53 percent to 34 percent. About the only bad news for Obama is that he's only got 63 percent of Dems.
Regionally, Obama's ahead in the Triangle and the Northeast, and virtually tied with McCain in the Triad. McCain leads in Charlotte and the southeast, but is below 50 percent in both. He's got 51 percent in the west ... but that's a lot lower than I expected.
And get this--one commenter in the dKos thread refactored the figures in this poll with 2004 turnout numbers and actually came out with Obama up five, 46-41.
How big is North Carolina, folks? Well, by my (admittedly unscientific) projection, Obama has 257 electoral votes (171 locked up tight, plus 86 that will likely go his way except in a McCain landslide). Turn North Carolina blue ... voila, 272 votes.
I was born in 1978--I've never seen North Carolina go Dem in my lifetime. To see this state a lovely shade of blue ...