Republican polling firm--Obama in a statistical dead heat!

Kos just reported some absolutely delightful news--Tel Opinion Research, a Republican polling firm, has released a new poll showing Obama only down four points. It's 45 percent for McCain to 41 percent for Obama. It's official, folks--our state is in play.

There's virtually no good news for McCain in this poll. He's below 50 percent among men and down three among women. I didn't expect it to be even this close--until I saw that Obama's beating McCain like a rented mule among indies, 53 percent to 34 percent. About the only bad news for Obama is that he's only got 63 percent of Dems.

Regionally, Obama's ahead in the Triangle and the Northeast, and virtually tied with McCain in the Triad. McCain leads in Charlotte and the southeast, but is below 50 percent in both. He's got 51 percent in the west ... but that's a lot lower than I expected.

And get this--one commenter in the dKos thread refactored the figures in this poll with 2004 turnout numbers and actually came out with Obama up five, 46-41.

How big is North Carolina, folks? Well, by my (admittedly unscientific) projection, Obama has 257 electoral votes (171 locked up tight, plus 86 that will likely go his way except in a McCain landslide). Turn North Carolina blue ... voila, 272 votes.

I was born in 1978--I've never seen North Carolina go Dem in my lifetime. To see this state a lovely shade of blue ...


I didn't see that

Thanks for bringing our attention to it. I was 14 when Jimmy Carter was elected. I was old enough to get caught up in the excitement. I have a vague memory of his rise in popularity. We have not voted Democrat for president as long as I've been able to vote. I'm ready to see that happen.

Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

And this is surprising... how?

I've been calling an Obama win in North Carolina for a long time. That campaign turns out voters with ruthless efficiency. It's the Google of political campaigns.

North Carolina is no longer the moral reactionary state that Linda Daves and the leadership of the NCGOP thinks it is. (We've been trying to tell them, but those stubborn old farts just won't listen) They're going to pay the price for it.

where you gonna hide, Liddy ?

But I want to quote from the first post: and ask what it might refer to...unless I mean, is it improper?
what is this referring to:
"beating McCain like a rented mule among indies?"

anyway. this is big.
Like the Tar Heels, they do best when they come from behind. I do not like it when we are way out front at half time. and Barack Obama is doing well to start from behind, pull even now and then soarRRRRRRR.

But are we going to be complacent?

Are we going to work hard?

Are we going to register five people each?


I meant that

Obama was beating McCain silly among independents ... that really surprised me. It looks like the only thing propping McCain up is the west ... I could see how that could happen, if they included the foothills in that region.