SEIU Poll - Kissell Leads Hayes by 2 in UNINFORMED vote

Holy Mother of Pearl. I can barely catch my breath. Those of you who went through the Kissell campaign ups and downs with me last cycle know just how much I love Larry Kissell. Do you remember those days where we did our best to make something positive out of poll numbers? Those days are over. With name recognition of 78% Robin Hayes is polling 2 points below Larry Kissell in the uninformed poll question with only 1% indicating they would vote for a different candidate.

I'll be adding more in a minute with links and crosstabs and all that lovely goodness you need to rip this poll apart, but for now I'm doing a happy dance and enjoying something we only dreamt about last cycle.

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The poll was conducted by the Service Employees International Union and The Center for American Progress Action Fund. You will find the toplines and crosstabs at this link.

The first thing that stands out is that this poll surveyed voters. All those surveyed were registered to vote in the home where they received the call and almost all voted in the 2004 presidential election. This is important since 2008 is another presidential election. A poll of this type is stronger when you are polling likely voters.

Another interesting thing I noticed is that much of the poll was informing about the Democratic healthcare plans vs. Republican and the informed vote poll question for Kissell/Hayes comes after the respondent is informed about the healthcare plans - not after they are informed about differences between Larry Kissell and Robin Hayes. This question shows Larry with an 8 point lead.

I will be digesting these numbers, as I'm sure some of you will as well, and we can meet in the comments to hash it out. At first I thought the poll was a little strong on the number of Dems included, but then I looked at the answers to how they identify themselves and 49% identified as conservative with 33% moderate and only 14% as liberal. That sounds about right for the district.

Look over the numbers at the link above. Just scroll to the North Carolina link. Let me know what you think. Go ahead and throw those wet rags. I'll just catch them and toss them right backatcha. Just about every criticism you can toss at this poll can be said about the polls last year showing Hayes ahead and Larry really far behind. Larry is starting out as the frontrunner and and oh my goodness it feels so good.

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Comments

Great googly moogly.

I suspect we will see the Hayes/Rovian attack machine moving into high gear, eh?

One of the pitfalls of childhood is that one doesn't have to understand something to feel it. - Carlos Ruiz Zafon

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

come on come on...

It's been 10 minutes already... *nervously chewing on his nails*

:-)

Left on 49

You can read my take on the

You can read my take on the high percentage of respondents identifying themselves as Democrats here.

Yay, Tom

Thanks for the linky love and giving us your take on things. I think that flag will go up for anyone reading the poll, but I felt comfortable once I looked at all the questions and the crosstabs.

Now, team Kissell has to make something out of this!

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

That is a great poll! If

That is a great poll! If anyone doubted the validity of this race they are surely mistaken.

Maybe Flipper will call it quits

before he gets his you know what handed to him.

That would be so, so beautiful



Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

NO WAY.

I already have my Tivo set to witness his concession speech. Even in 2006 before every vote had been counted, he had a bunch of smart ass comments in his "speech". I've been waiting for this moment since I moved to the 8th in 2004. Please let it happen. :]

what a citizen wants

and what the Republicans offer have reached quite a disconnect. Even when a majority don't want the concept of government-run, higher taxing health care, they want some solution that helps everyone. The S-CHIP votes are really coming back to bite the Bad Samaritan Party.

If this is the way a conservative, white Protestant district is going in the South, a big change is a-coming.

Poll problems

I will first disclose that I am generally suspicious of polls commissioned by interest groups that use the results to advocate their own agenda. For example, I rarely give credence to Fox polls (or Civitas polls).

Here are some of the problems I have with this poll:

First, questions 1 through 3 are not disclosed, but in the crosstabs it identifies respondents' party id. Now because these are all registerd voters, I must assume one of the questions asked was party registration (ID). The crosstabs show that respondents are 46% Democratic, 29% Republican, and 24% Independent. I do not know the registration breakdown in District 8, but I doubt this is a representative sample.

Second, four percent of respondents did not vote in the 2004 presidential election. The crosstabs show that 75% of those new voters are black. Again, pre-Obamamania when the poll was taken, it is inconceivable that three quarters of new voters in 2008 will be black especially when blacks make up only 22% of the total pool of respondents. It is unreliable data.

Third, call me sceptical but does anyone really believe that name ID for SCHIP is higher than name ID for HMO? I'd be real interested in the screen that provides those results.

These are just three small examples for having some serious doubts about relying on the data as an accurate representation of voter sentiment.

Having said that, it does not mean that Hayes is ahead. I just wouldn't use this poll to reach that conclusion.

To answer one doubt

Last time I checked with the State BOE data, the 8th district was 51% Democrat, and about 35$ Republican. This is an accurate sample. Thanks.

Yes

Name ID for SCHIP would be high in the 8th because so many rely on it to provide their children with insurance/healthcare coverage. Also, Robin Hayes has gone out of his way defending his vote against SCHIP and I believe recently spent tax payer money doing so. (Franked mail) There have been at least two big articles giving him an opportunity to defend his vote against SCHIP and it's been in the news a lot recently, where HMOs have not. So yes, I can believe that SCHIP has higher name recognition than HMO at this point in time.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

question 3

Name ID for HMOs is actually higher, at 81% to 80%. Technically its a tie, both with pretty high recognition.

"Keep the Faith"

"Keep the Faith"

Obviously I didn't bother to go look

I've missed you. Good work in New Hampshire. Where to now? Are you coming back home?



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

One of my issues with the poll

is that there is another Democratic candidate in the primary, is there not? I'm not talking Larry down, but I didn't see a mention of John Autry's name in the polling questions.

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

He has almost no name recognition

Outside of a handful of people, Autry isn't seen as a serious or viable candidate. There are actually two Democrats challenging Kissell. I just don't remember the other guys name. I can't imagine a serious poll including candidates who aren't seen as viable. That and this was a choice between Dem and Rep, not Dem and Dem.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.