Garance Franke-Ruta at the American Prospect Online offers some analysis about the Democrats' prospects next November.
Just how many of the 435 House seats will be competitive in 2006 is a matter of debate. Charlie Cook, editor of The Cook Political Report, puts the number at only 28, including 11 Democratic seats and 17 Republicans ones. Stuart Rothenberg, political analyst for Roll Call, pushes the number to 37, which is also the figure accepted by National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Chairman Tom Reynolds. To win back control of the House, Democrats would have to keep all 11 of their contested seats and win 15 of the Republican ones, for a virtually impossible 96-percent win rate under the Cook scenario (Republicans retook the House in 1994 with a 75-percent win rate). Yet the political environment has also changed so radically over the summer and fall that Cook says he now thinks that there are â€œliterally dozens of Republican-held seats, that, based on presidential voting patterns, credible Democratic candidates in a pro-Democratic year might win.â€
The whole thing is worth a read.